Business · Technology · The Future
The World of Business in 2036: Where Are We Heading—and Why?
AI, trust, energy, Africa’s growing markets, and the forces that may decide which businesses thrive over the next decade.
My strongest conviction is this: by 2036, the most successful businesses will not necessarily be the ones with the most money, the most employees, or the most sophisticated technology. They will be the ones that combine intelligent automation, trusted relationships, distribution, and the ability to solve real-world problems at scale.
I believe we are approaching a fundamental change in how businesses are built, how value is created, how people earn money, and how competition works.
But let’s separate three things: what the data already shows, what it suggests, and what remains a forecast. Statistics cannot tell us exactly what the world will look like in ten years. They can reveal where capital is flowing, which technologies are spreading, what demographic pressures are building, and which economic bottlenecks are becoming more important.
This outlook draws on research from Stanford University, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Economic Forum (WEF), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the World Bank, the United Nations, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and the GSMA.
1. Intelligence will become cheap. Execution will become expensive.
For centuries, businesses have relied on people to perform tasks that require thinking: research, writing, analysis, accounting, customer service, product design, programming, planning, and decision-making. Hiring skilled people has often been one of the main ways to expand a company.
AI is changing that equation. One person can now perform tasks that previously required several specialists—provided that person knows how to use the tools, verify the results, and execute the work.
The gap between adopting AI and achieving business results is important. Using a tool is not the same as redesigning an organization around it. A business might use AI to write advertisements. Another might use it to forecast demand, adjust inventory, personalize offers, monitor purchasing patterns, and resolve routine customer issues.
Both use AI. Only one has fundamentally redesigned its operating model.
By 2036, I expect AI to become ordinary business infrastructure, much like internet connectivity, spreadsheets, and cloud computing. The pace will vary by industry, and AI will not be equally reliable at every task. Still, it is difficult to imagine competitive businesses ignoring it.
2. Small businesses will gain capabilities once reserved for large companies
A serious company traditionally needed a marketing team, customer support, accountants, designers, analysts, sales representatives, and software developers. AI can reduce the cost of accessing some of those capabilities.
A founder with limited capital may be able to research a market, build a professional website, test a product, automate routine customer communication, and create marketing materials without hiring a large team immediately. This does not eliminate the need for expertise: poor decisions remain poor decisions, even when AI helps execute them faster.
| What changes | Potential business consequence |
|---|---|
| Lower research and development costs | More founders can test ideas before raising significant capital. |
| AI-assisted software development | Smaller teams can build useful digital products. |
| Automated customer support | Businesses can serve more customers without expanding support teams proportionally. |
| Automated administration | Owners can spend more time on sales, strategy, and customer relationships. |
The IMF estimated in 2024 that almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI. Exposure does not mean every affected job will disappear: AI can replace some tasks and make other workers more productive. The IMF estimated exposure at about 60% in advanced economies and 26% in low-income countries.
The World Economic Forum’s 2025 report projected that broader technological, demographic, economic, and environmental changes could create 170 million jobs and displace 92 million by 2030—a projected net increase of 78 million. This is not an AI-only forecast, nor a guarantee that every displaced worker will find a comparable job.
My interpretation: the number of employees a company has will become a less reliable indicator of its economic power. A small firm with strong software, specialist knowledge, distribution, and customer trust could compete with much larger organizations.
3. Trust, reputation, and distribution will become more valuable
When it becomes easier to produce websites, videos, applications, advertisements, designs, and software, the supply of those things increases. But the ability to produce something is not the same as the ability to persuade someone to buy it.
Imagine thousands of businesses using similar AI tools to launch online stores, build booking applications, and generate attractive marketing. The technology itself gives customers fewer reasons to choose one business over another.
What then matters? Who is trusted? Who can reach customers reliably? Who delivers on promises? Who resolves problems? Who has a recognizable brand? Who can demonstrate that their claims are true?
Distribution
Established customers, reliable sales channels, partnerships, and access to specific markets.
Reputation
Evidence that a business does what it promises, especially when something goes wrong.
Proprietary knowledge
Original customer data, operational experience, and expertise that generic tools cannot simply reproduce.
Execution
The ability to deliver consistently, handle complexity, and turn promises into results.
I expect the internet to make products easier to create while making sustained customer trust harder to earn—and more valuable to possess.
4. AI agents may become a new gateway between customers and businesses
Today, people search for products, visit websites, compare prices, read reviews, and decide what to buy. Over the next decade, AI assistants may increasingly perform some of those steps on a customer’s behalf.
A customer might ask an assistant to find a reliable hotel within a budget, book a trusted barber, compare insurance policies, or source business supplies. The assistant may investigate options, apply preferences, and present a shortlist—or complete an authorized transaction.
If this becomes common, businesses will need accurate service menus, transparent prices, genuine availability, verified reviews, clear cancellation terms, secure payments, and dependable digital systems. A business may need to be understandable to both people and software.
This future is not guaranteed to arrive at the same speed everywhere. It depends on reliability, payment integration, consumer trust, security, regulation, and data quality. Human branding and relationships will still matter; customers will influence the preferences they give their assistants.
Still, businesses that make fragmented markets easier to navigate—through booking networks, trusted marketplaces, specialist directories, payment infrastructure, and reputation systems—could become more valuable.
5. The physical economy will matter more, not less
It is tempting to assume that because the digital world is growing, physical infrastructure is becoming less important. I believe the opposite will often be true.
AI requires electricity, chips, data centers, cooling systems, networks, and dependable infrastructure. Digital commerce still depends on transport, storage, buildings, payment systems, and physical delivery.
These projections point toward opportunities in several areas:
- Energy and power reliability: solar installation, battery storage, backup systems, maintenance, and energy management.
- Digital infrastructure: data-center construction, cooling, networking, cybersecurity, and equipment maintenance.
- Physical operations: logistics, warehousing, inventory systems, repairs, and last-mile delivery.
The larger principle is that technology creates demand but can also expose bottlenecks. AI creates opportunities in software while increasing demand for electricity and computing infrastructure. Digital commerce creates opportunities for platforms while increasing demand for logistics, payments, and trust.
6. Africa could become a consequential growth region—but opportunity is not destiny
Africa combines a growing population, a young labor force, substantial unmet demand for formal services, and considerable room to expand digital connectivity. Yet the continent also faces constraints involving electricity, infrastructure, purchasing power, education, financing, and institutional capacity.
That combination creates a gap between what people need and what existing markets reliably provide. The gap is an opportunity, not proof that every business operating in Africa will succeed.
The GSMA forecasts that mobile’s contribution to Africa’s economy could reach $290 billion by 2030. But connectivity alone is not enough. Device affordability, data costs, digital skills, language, and the relevance of available services all affect adoption.
Now consider employment. The World Bank has highlighted that Africa creates approximately 3 million formal jobs annually while 10–12 million young people enter the labor force each year. Formal wage employment alone cannot absorb that number. Entrepreneurship and small businesses will remain essential—but the challenge is to improve productivity and earnings, not simply encourage people to start companies.
Where I see promising African opportunities
- Financial infrastructure: reliable payments, merchant tools, accounting, credit assessment, and fraud prevention.
- Software for small businesses: bookings, sales, customer relationships, stock management, scheduling, and recordkeeping.
- Skills and employment infrastructure: practical training, apprenticeships, job matching, and competency assessment.
- Energy and essential services: power reliability, distributed energy, food distribution, healthcare access, transport, and repairs.
The UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 projects that sub-Saharan Africa’s population will grow by approximately 79% between 2024 and 2054, reaching around 2.2 billion. Population growth does not automatically create prosperity. It creates potential demand, potential workers, and pressure on infrastructure. Turning that potential into purchasing power depends on productivity, income growth, education, governance, and investment.
The African businesses most likely to endure will solve large, recurring problems at prices that match local economic realities. A company can begin with one city, one customer segment, and one persistent problem, then expand as its economics prove themselves.
7. Global business will remain connected—but become more selective
I do not expect globalization to disappear. I expect companies and governments to become more selective about what they depend on, where they obtain it, and how exposed they are to geopolitical disruption.
UN Trade and Development reported that global foreign direct investment rose 6% to $1.6 trillion in 2025, but the recovery was uneven. The world’s top 20 host economies attracted more than 80% of global FDI, while strategic sectors accounted for 44% of global greenfield project values, up from 16% in 2020.
That suggests investment is increasingly shaped by strategic priorities, not just by the search for the cheapest labor or largest market. By 2036, I expect businesses to place greater emphasis on supply-chain resilience, regional partnerships, data control, reliable suppliers, and the ability to operate through disruptions.
The opportunity is in helping companies manage complexity: logistics, compliance, supply-chain software, local manufacturing, repair networks, and services that connect producers to regional markets. The risk is dependence on a single platform, supplier, imported component, or unstable source of finance.
8. More businesses will sell outcomes, not just products
Customers generally do not want technology for its own sake. They want a result.
A business owner does not inherently want inventory software. The owner wants fewer stockouts, less waste, better margins, and more predictable cash flow. A student does not necessarily want an AI tutor; the student wants to understand a subject, pass an exam, or develop a useful skill.
I expect more businesses to organize their offers around concrete results, ongoing service, and measurable improvements. This could include software bundled with implementation and support, education tied to demonstrated competencies, equipment supplied with maintenance, and energy systems sold through service agreements.
Outcome-based pricing only works when results can be measured fairly, responsibilities are clear, and the provider can control enough of the process to justify the promise. The deeper opportunity is to build longer-term relationships instead of treating every sale as an isolated transaction.
9. Jobs, wages, and inequality will be among the decade’s defining questions
AI will affect different tasks differently. Repetitive digital work may become cheaper. Some administrative and entry-level roles may shrink, while new roles emerge in AI integration, security, oversight, specialized services, and fields that benefit from greater productivity.
Other jobs will change rather than disappear. A doctor may use AI to summarize records while remaining responsible for clinical judgment. A lawyer may automate document review but still need to negotiate and represent clients. A business owner may use AI for forecasts while remaining accountable for financial decisions.
The distribution of gains is less predictable than the technology itself. If AI allows a company to serve twice as many customers with nearly the same staff, who captures the benefit? Customers may pay lower prices. Employees may earn more. Investors may receive higher profits. Some workers may lose employment.
The result will depend on competition, labor markets, ownership, regulation, and the availability of new opportunities. I do not believe the evidence supports a simple claim that AI will eliminate all work—or that it will automatically create enough good jobs to compensate for every displacement.
For workers, a durable strategy is to combine technical capability with domain knowledge, communication, sound judgment, and responsibility for real outcomes. For employers, the challenge is to improve productivity without destroying the skills, institutional knowledge, and customer relationships that make a business valuable.
The evidence at a glance
| Research finding | Why it matters for 2036 |
|---|---|
| 88% of surveyed organizations reported AI use in at least one function in 2025. | AI is moving toward a standard business capability. |
| The IMF estimated almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI. | Work will be reorganized across industries, not only in technology companies. |
| Data-center electricity demand could rise from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030. | Digital expansion increases demand for physical infrastructure. |
| Mobile technologies contributed $240 billion to Africa’s economy in 2025. | Africa already has a substantial digital economy and significant unmet connectivity needs. |
| The top 20 host economies attracted over 80% of global FDI in 2025. | Investment opportunities are substantial but unevenly distributed. |
A note on forecasts: These numbers do not all have the same evidential status. Some describe observed activity; others are estimates or projections. None proves an exact 2036 outcome. Their value lies in the patterns they reveal when considered together.
Three possible futures for 2036
1. The productive future
AI becomes widely accessible, infrastructure improves, new businesses emerge, and productivity gains translate into better services, lower costs, higher incomes, and new industries.
2. The concentrated future
AI creates tremendous economic value, but profits accrue disproportionately to firms controlling computing infrastructure, proprietary data, distribution, capital, and customer relationships.
3. The disrupted future
Technological change outpaces workforce adaptation while geopolitical shocks, infrastructure constraints, unequal access, and economic instability weaken the benefits.
What seems most likely?
The real future may combine all three across different countries and industries. Access to technology will not automatically mean equal access to its economic benefits.
My final conviction
The future belongs to businesses that turn change into durable value
The next decade will make intelligence more abundant, while making trust, access, execution, and the ability to coordinate complex systems increasingly valuable.
I would not begin evaluating a business by asking whether its industry is fashionable. I would ask whether the underlying problem will still exist in 2036, whether enough customers care about solving it, whether they will pay, whether technology can improve the economics, and whether the company can build an advantage competitors cannot easily reproduce.
I would also ask what the business controls. Does it own a trusted customer relationship? Does it have distribution? Does it possess useful data or specialist expertise? Can it deliver consistently? Does it serve customers who have a painful problem and few reliable alternatives?
The biggest opportunity does not have to be a purely digital business. It may be an essential service with extraordinary operating systems—using technology to make something unreliable, expensive, fragmented, or inaccessible dramatically better.
That is where I see the greatest potential: not simply inventing what the world has never seen, but finding what the world will increasingly need and learning to deliver it better than anyone else.
Which important problem will become more painful over the next ten years—and what could you build today that would become exceptionally valuable as that pressure grows?
Sources and further reading
The links below lead to the original research, reports, and institutional summaries behind the key statistics in this article. Open the report pages for downloadable PDFs where available.
- Stanford HAI — The 2026 AI Index Report. AI adoption, capability trends, investment, and the economic impact of AI.
- McKinsey — The State of AI. Survey research on enterprise AI adoption and reported business impact.
- IMF — AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity. Estimates of employment exposure to AI.
- World Economic Forum — Future of Jobs Report 2025. Employer expectations for job creation, displacement, and changing skills through 2030.
- International Energy Agency — Key Questions on Energy and AI. Data-center electricity demand and energy-system implications.
- International Energy Agency — Renewables 2025. Renewable capacity growth projections.
- GSMA — The Mobile Economy Africa 2026. Africa’s mobile economy, connectivity, and digital usage gap. Download the PDF report.
- World Bank — Digital Progress and Trends Report. Global gaps in digital infrastructure, skills, and AI readiness.
- UN Trade and Development — World Investment Report 2026. Global FDI flows, investment concentration, and strategic sectors.
- United Nations — World Population Prospects 2024. Official global population estimates and projections.
- World Bank — Africa Overview. Regional development context and economic challenges.
Editorial note: This article combines reported statistics with forward-looking interpretation. Forecasts are uncertain and should not be treated as investment advice. Always consult the original reports for definitions, methodology, and updates.
